Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
In Emerson College's latestswing state opinion polling, Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, leads Vice President Kamala Harris in four of the five states surveyed. According to the poll, carried out 22-23 July following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race, Trump holds a lead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and is tied with Harris in Wisconsin.
- It should be noted that in every state, Harris has improved on Biden's polling from earlier in July and narrowed the gap with Trump:
- AZ: Biden 40% > Harris 44%, gap with Trump 7% > 5%
- GA: Biden 41% > Harris 46%, gap with Trump 6% > 2%
- MI: Biden 42% > Harris 45%, gap with Trump 3% > 1%
- PA: Biden 43% > Harris 46%, gap with Trump 5% > 2%
- WI: Biden 43% > Harris 47%, gap with trump 5% > 0%
- Wednesday 24 July saw the first major political rallies by both Trump and Harris since Biden's withdrawal and the VP's elevation to presumptive nominee (having gathered the support of a majority of DNC delegates).
- Harris may be riding a wave of relief among Democrat supporters and independents at Biden's withdrawal, but it remains to be seen whether this bump can be sustained in the face of Trump's attacks on herliberal voting record.
Chart 1. Emerson College Swing State Opinion Polling, %
Source: Emerson College Polling. N.b. Fieldwork 22-23 July, The sample size for AZ, GA, and MI is n=800 per state. The credibility interval for each state is +/-3.4%. The sample size in PA is n=850, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for WI is n=845, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.