Trump Maintains Lead In New Swing State Polling

A new survey of swing states by Emerson College Polling and The Hill has found little change in the wake of former President Donald Trump's criminal conviction in New York, with Trump leading in six states and tied with President Biden in a seventh, Minnesota

• Spencer Kimball at Emerson College Polling notes: “In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November. Notably, results fall within the poll’s margin of error.”
• Kimball adds: “Independent voters break for Trump in all seven states – however, there has been some movement among these voters since April. In Arizona, Trump’s support among independents dropped five points, from 48% to 43%. In Michigan, Trump’s support dropped three, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, from 49% to 41%. Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, 42% to 36% and Nevada, by five, 37% to 32%.”
• Notably, the survey finds that Democratic Senate candidates outperform Biden by two in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three in Minnesota, and seven in Nevada, indicating that voters are rejecting Biden in particular, rather than Democrats in general.

Figure 1: State Polls: 2024 Presidential Election