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Trump Presidency Could Shift Oil Sanction Policy: Platts

OIL

US oil sanctions policy could change significantly change if Trump wins the election, expects told Platts.

  • Combined crude production in Russia, Iran, and Venezuela – the main countries targeted by oil sanctions – produced 13.2m b/d in July, up from 11.7m b/d at the start of the Biden administration and 16.1m b/d at the start of the Trump administration.
  • The macro picture could be a determining factor in the sanctions’ trajectory: soft oil prices, excess capacity, and moderate growth could provide economic flexibility for tougher Iran and Russia sanctions, Atlantic Council’s David Goldwyn said.
  • The most market-relevant sanctions shift for Trump is likely Iran, which could see a further crack down.
  • Regarding Russia, a Ukraine peace deal could see Trump lift sanctions, Rachel Ziemba, a senior advisor with Horizon Engage said.
  • Venezuela’s sanctions are more uncertain. The previous policy was driven by advisor John Bolton, so Trump could take a new approach to Caracas.
  • Trump may return to maximum pressure or look for a new strategy – given the previous policy didn’t achieve its objective.

Source: S&P Global Comodity Insights

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