Trump Presidency Likely Bearish for Oil: Citi

A second Donald Trump presidency would have mostly bearish implications for the oil market, although the effect would likely be limited, Citi said cited by Dow Jones.

• While Trump appears to have a more oil and gas friendly agenda, it would take 12-18 months for policy changes to have a notable effect on domestic supply growth, Citi said.
• With US oil production already at an all -time high, reversing Biden’s fossil fuel policies may not boost liquids production further.
• However, Trump’s closer ties with Saudi Arabia could allow him to push OPEC+ to raise production.
• A Harris administration would likely continue Biden’s current policies. This includes ending production on federal lands and eventually cutting exports.
• While Harris has previously expressed support for banning fracking, she is unlikely to pursue this policy in office due to its effect on the US economy.