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Trump's Lead Shrinks Slightly Amid Biden Polling Bump

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According to data from betting and prediction markets, former president Donald Trump's lead over President Joe Biden, in the White House race, has shrunk slightly in the past week, on the back of more positive polling for Biden.

  • According to Smarkets (below) Trump is given an implied probability of 52.6% of winning, with Biden (36.5%) closing the gap by just over five-percentage-points in the past week.
  • Predictit shows the race even tighter, with Trump leading 51%-48% down from 54%-43% on June 19.
  • On 538's presidential approval tracker, Biden's current approval rate is a shade under 40% - the highest he has recorded since late March.
  • AnIpsos pollof swing state released on June 20 found the race tighter than some previous polls. Ipsos noted: "Despite Biden’s shortcoming on key issues and relatively low approval rating, if the presidential election were held today, the race is too close to call, with 35% of registered, likely voters indicating they would support Joe Biden, 37% indicating they would vote for Donald Trump, and 6% indicating they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. When incorporating a forced choice question between Biden and Trump, 47% report they would vote for Biden, 50% would vote for Trump and 3% refused."

Figure: 2024 Presidential Election Winner

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According to data from betting and prediction markets, former president Donald Trump's lead over President Joe Biden, in the White House race, has shrunk slightly in the past week, on the back of more positive polling for Biden.

  • According to Smarkets (below) Trump is given an implied probability of 52.6% of winning, with Biden (36.5%) closing the gap by just over five-percentage-points in the past week.
  • Predictit shows the race even tighter, with Trump leading 51%-48% down from 54%-43% on June 19.
  • On 538's presidential approval tracker, Biden's current approval rate is a shade under 40% - the highest he has recorded since late March.
  • AnIpsos pollof swing state released on June 20 found the race tighter than some previous polls. Ipsos noted: "Despite Biden’s shortcoming on key issues and relatively low approval rating, if the presidential election were held today, the race is too close to call, with 35% of registered, likely voters indicating they would support Joe Biden, 37% indicating they would vote for Donald Trump, and 6% indicating they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. When incorporating a forced choice question between Biden and Trump, 47% report they would vote for Biden, 50% would vote for Trump and 3% refused."

Figure: 2024 Presidential Election Winner

Keep reading...Show less