Trump Shows Polling Strength In Sun Belt

The New York Times/Siena College has publishedanother trend-defying set of swing state polls, showing Trump gaining ground on Harris in the Sun Belt following the presidential debate.

• The polls show Trump extending his lead in Arizona and maintaining his advantage in Georgia and North Carolina - a state Democrats haven’t won since 2008 but appears closer this year than in recent cycles.
• The Times notes: “The polls of these three states, taken from Sept. 17 to 21, presented further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history.”
• The Times notes that, in Arizona, Trump is ahead, 50 percent to 45 percent. The same survey in August found Harris leading by five percentage points. "Latino voters, in particular, appear to have moved away from Ms. Harris, though a significant number — 10 percent — said they were now undecided.”
• The Times reports: “The polls found that voters in this part of the country [Sun Belt] were worried about their own future and the future of the nation, suggesting that Mr. Trump’s dark campaign rhetoric ... Republicans were much more likely to hold that unsettled view of the future than Democrats, 72 percent to 16 percent.”

Figure 1: Pre-Debate/Post-Debate Comparison, Sun Belt Swing States