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Trump Slight Favourite In Betting Markets Following NYT Poll

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The implied probability of former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election edged up slightly to the highest level since early August, following a widely reported NYT-Siena college survey that hinted at some weaknesses in Harris' key polling numbers.

  • According to Election Betting Odds, Trump has an implied probability of roughly 51% of winning in November, compared to Harris' 47%.
  • Notably, the political prediction market PredictIt shows the race tied for the first time since late July. PredictIt has regularly been the most bullish market on Harris, suggesting that the NYT survey has spooked traders.

Figure 1: President Election - One Week Chart, % Implied Probability of Winning

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The implied probability of former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election edged up slightly to the highest level since early August, following a widely reported NYT-Siena college survey that hinted at some weaknesses in Harris' key polling numbers.

  • According to Election Betting Odds, Trump has an implied probability of roughly 51% of winning in November, compared to Harris' 47%.
  • Notably, the political prediction market PredictIt shows the race tied for the first time since late July. PredictIt has regularly been the most bullish market on Harris, suggesting that the NYT survey has spooked traders.

Figure 1: President Election - One Week Chart, % Implied Probability of Winning

Keep reading...Show less