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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Brett Baier of Fox News claims that former president and soon-to-be Republican nominee Donald Trump has confirmed that he will announce his pick for vice presidential running mate later on the first day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, WI. The VP nominee, whoever they are, is set to address the convention on Wednesday 17 July.
- Political betting markets data from Smarkets shows North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as the narrow favourite among bettors, ahead of US Senator from Ohio JD Vance. Burgum is given a 40% implied probability of getting the nod compared to 32.8% for Vance. Former HUD Sec Ben Carson is in third place with a 10% implied probability, just ahead of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).
- The vice presidential pick has historically been utilised to appeal to a geographic or demographic area where the presidential nominee is weaker. However, with Trump's pick the key factor is likely to be loyalty to his president, espcially following his vocal displeasure with former VP Mike Pence amid the events of 6 Jan 2021.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Becoming Republican VP Nominee, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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