US
US President Donald Trump is expected to meet Republican hardliners at the White House today to drum up support for a Continuing Resolution to keep the government funded through September 30. The meeting will be another test of Trump's influence with conservatives after his outreach flipped the votes of a handful of deficit hawks on the House budget blueprint.
- Rep Thomas Massie (R-KY) is likely a 'hard no' but Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) and House Freedom Caucus chair Andy Harris (R-MD) indicated yesterday they would follow leadership guidance on this funding deadline.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is likely to put the measure on the floor next week to avert a government shutdown on March 15. The bill is expected to be ‘clean’ – meaning funding will continue at Biden administration-era levels.
- Democrat strategy remains unclear. They have leverage but have been historically unwilling to play brinksmanship with a shutdown. House Approps Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) warned yesterday: "I think the 13 Democrats sitting in Trump seats ought to think twice about shutting down Trump's government,"
- A prevailing view is that enough Senate Democrats are likely to join with the GOP to pass a funding package, if Johnson can force it through the House.
- The risk of a government shutdown in 2025 ticked up slightly to nearly 60%, according to Polymarket.
Figure 1: Government Shutdown in 2025, %Implied Probability 
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