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Trump's COVID Status And Payrolls In Focus

US TSYS SUMMARY

The Treasury rally overnight following news of Pres Trump's positive COVID test has taken a breather, with equities finding some footing. Payrolls data lies ahead.

  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) up 4.5/32 at 139-22 (L: 139-16 / H: 139-24), on heavy volumes (with the curve bull flattening. The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 0.123%, 5-Yr is down 1.3bps at 0.2595%, 10-Yr is down 2bps at 0.6578%, and 30-Yr is down 2.5bps at 1.4298%.
  • The news has shaken up the presidential race obviously - betting market implied odds (per RCP) have Biden at 65% prob of winning, up from 54.5% pre-debate and 61.3% yest.
  • As we await updates from the White House, Sep Payrolls (0830ET) in focus: MNI dealer median sees +875k; BBG Whisper: +983k. We also get Factory/Durable Goods Orders and UMich final sentiment numbers at 1000ET.
  • Philly Fed's Harker speaks at 0900ET, w Minn's Kashkari at 1300ET.
  • No supply and no NY Fed operational purchases today.
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