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TRY Continues to Hemorrhage as CBRT, FOMC Loom

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.44% higher this morning, tracking buying pressure on the BBDXY in early trading.
  • The cross continued to press higher in Friday's broadly risk-off session, accelerating above the 100 & 50dmas with TRY & ZAR among the most vulnerable currencies w/w on the back of rising US Treasury yields.
  • Focus this week remains on the CBRT & FOMC meetings, with risks skewed to the upside for the cross.
  • The CBRT is broadly expected to keep rates on hold this week, although some have priced in roughly -50bp in cuts which could see some post-decision volatility depending on guidance in the statement.
  • Although Kavcioglu has sidestepped commitments to raise rates by shifting to core CPI, he will be cognisant of the substantial risks to TRY stability, should he ease prematurely at this meeting.
  • Beyond the CBRT, we also have the FOMC on the radar with a fresh dot plot and tapering announcements likely to spur volatility in the US Treasury market in the lead-up.
  • TRY remains among the most vulnerable to rising UST yields due to its precarious short-term foreign currency debt to FX reserve position.
  • Momentum remains higher with a focus on the all-time high at 8.80. Intraday Sup1: 8.6302, Sup2: 8.6079, Res1: 8.7092, Res2: 8.7488
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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