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- USD/TRY trades +0.04% higher this morning, brushing off early weakness in the BBDXY and marginally firmer risk sentiment out of APAC as weaker monetary policy sentiment/credibility continues to hurt TRY.
- The cross rose +1.35% on Friday for w/w gain of +2.77%, following the abrupt and destabilising dovish tilt from the CBRT.
- TRY is likely to remain under pressure as markets digest the prior meeting and anticipate and acceleration in dollarisation, inflation expectations and potentially the use of reserves to stem potential currency volatility.
- Moreover, comments from Erdogan confirming the second purchase of S-400s may incur consequences in terms of CAATSA sanctions with the Erdogan-Putin meeting looming on 29 September.
- Beyond this, we see trade balance and PMI data in Turkey this week as markets gauge the veracity of the domestic recovery. On the international front we see US GDP & ISM data into the tail end of the week.
- USD/TRY remains in bull mode, and must move beyond 8.90 resistance to test the 9.00 handle – which may be relatively sticky. Intraday Sup1: 8.8017, 8.7484, Res1: 8.9325, Res2: 9.00