TRY holds pole position as carry...>

EMERGING MARKETS: TRY holds pole position as carry theme in play

-TRY remained the firmest Monday, one of the few global currencies to continue

to outperform the USD in recent weeks and now looks to clock a strong start to

the week as the carry trade theme should cement further after the Fed on

Wednesday. USD/TRY now looks on track to test the 200-dma support at 5.5642, a

level not consistently traded below since February. ZAR is also benefiting as

the carry effect ripples through EMFX, but is far from erasing sharp losses seen

at the tail-end of last week. ZAR bulls eye the 200-dma at 14.1917 for

direction.

-LatAm FX was more muted, with CRC gaining at the expense of ARS, BRL and COP.

-The Turkish central bank's inflation report due Wednesday will be a highlight,

with Brazil seen cutting rates by 25bps on the same day.