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TRY Rangebound, but Continues to Outperform EM High-Beta Peers

  • USD/TRY opens higher in line with broad risk-off sentiment and a more buoyant USD.
  • Greece-Turkey talks saw little in terms of material progress on key sovereignty and maritime issues, but agreements for a second round were a mild positive allowing TRY to weather the storm better than its EM high-beta peers RUB & ZAR.
  • EU remains slightly on the hawkish side in terms of sanctions rhetoric, asking for more concrete concessions from Turkey which could become a sticking point if the March sanctions reassessment is expedited.
  • Erdogan's call for low interest loans could be a hurdle for local banks, and we'll be monitoring follow-through of his promises of reduced food prices.
  • Spot is caught between selling pressure emerging around 7.4288 and the 200dma below at 7.3698, awaiting a breakout for a more decisive direction.
  • Intraday sup1: 3.3783, Sup2: 3.3583, Res1: 7.4288, Res2: 7.4498
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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