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TRY The Early Leader in Emerging Market Currency Space

EM FX
  • TRY the strongest performing currency in EMFX so far Thursday, higher by around 0.5% against the USD as markets respond to the CBRT's decision overnight to raise their required reserve ratio for FX liabilities. Initial support in USD/TRY is untroubled, however, meaning the trend conditions remain bullish. Sights are set on 8.8008, Jun 2 high and the bull trigger where a break would open 8.9657, 2.00 projection of the Feb 16 - Mar 9 - Mar 19 price swing. Key support lies at 8.2860, Jun 11 low. Initial support is at 8.5986, Jun 23 low.
  • RUB trades similarly favourably, with USD/RUB correcting lower after a solid rally this week. Oil prices remain favourable, with Brent today higher by 0.6% or so ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which will likely remain the primary price driver Thursday. An output hike of 500,000bpd would meet consensus expectations, but any more sizeable hike could prove negative for oil prices and prompt USD/RUB to resume its upward trend this week. Resistance is at 73.3952, the 50-day EMA. A strong break of the EMA would potentially alter the picture.
  • USD/ZAR remains pinned between the directional parameters of the 100-dma at 14.3867 and the 50-dma support at 14.0329. Price holding toward the top end of this range keeps the short-term outlook bullish and a recovery here would signal a significant reversal of the downtrend that started early Apr 2020. The focus is on 14.5434 next, May 4 high.
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EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News

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