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TRY Under Pressure as CBRT Survey, Rising Virus Cases Loom

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades marginally higher at the open, having held a tight but choppy range in yesterday's session.
  • An early bid in the dollar and signs of risk-off across APAC indices on higher Chinese CPI keeping markets tentative at the end of the week.
  • Focus today on the CBRT survey for signs of adjustments to the 12-month inflation expectations (11.54% prior).
  • Most sell-side institutions have been upgrading 12m expectations following CBRT Gov Agbal's removal on the basis of a larger expected credit impulse, lower rates, weaker TRY & untethered expectations.
  • Higher 12m expectations should erode real yield/carry differentials in TRY assets adding upside pressure in USD/TRY today.
  • The cross remains rangebound between 8.1135-8.2046, awaiting a breakout to confirm a more decisive near-term direction.
  • Deteriorating virus conditions and risks of tighter restrictions also likely to keep the cross biased higher.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.1135, Sup2: 0.0236, Res1: 8.1793, Res2: 8.2046
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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