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Tsy Borrowing Est's Larger Than Expected

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures remain in positive territory, well off mid-session highs after the Tsy anncd larger than expected Q3 issuance of $1.007 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt in the third quarter and an additional USD852 billion in the fourth quarter.
  • Treasury's third quarter estimate is USD274 billion more than previously announced in May, primarily due to a low cash balance at the start of the quarter. Adjusted for changing cash balance levels, third quarter borrowing is expected to be the greatest quarterly borrowing on record.
  • Reminder, the Treasury's quarterly refunding, which is expected to show coupon increases, will be released at 8:30 a.m. August 2.
  • Meanwhile, lending standards saw another quarter of tightening across the board through Q2, for the most part either at a accelerated pace than was the case with the April release or showing a similar trend.
  • Earlier data: The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, ticked up by 1.3 points to 42.8 in July, the second consecutive monthly increase. However, with the exception of Prices Paid, all of the sub-indices remain in contractive territory (sub-50).
  • Focus turns to ISMs on Tue (Mfg 46.98 est, prices paid 44.0 est), ADP on Wednesday (+188k est vs. 497k prior), and July employment data next Friday, current estimate of +200k job gains vs. +209k in June.
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