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US TSYS SUMMARY: *** Tsy futures holding mixed levels early in second half,
curve reversing prior session' steepening w/long end outperforming. Generally a
quiet end to the wk/month/quarter even after upside blowout Chicago Business
Barometer read, 65.2 vs. 59.0 exp.
- Rates sold off/recovered slightly on Wall Street Journal article making the
rounds that US Pres Trump to meet with Kevin Warsh about Fed chair post. Chances
of Warsh front runner for post has been on rise last few days to 47%. MBS
revered gains on premise Warsh would favor faster Fed balance sheet unwind;
equities moved higher.
- Moderate 2way w/short-cover/dip buys after core August PCE price inflation
data(+0.1%). Flow included flatteners via 2s, 3s, 5s and 7s vs. 30s. Prop, fast%
selling on Warsh item followed by misc buying/position squaring. Desks
anticipate late month end duration buying.
- Tsys drifted off lows on Fed Harker, though still penciling in 3rd hike, no
"magic" for Dec, can wait to hike, favors more concrete inflation data.
- Catalonia independence referendum scheduled for Sunday.