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Free AccessTsy Futures Near Late Highs, Rate Cut Projections Gradually Gaining
- Treasuries climbed steadily off early session lows Tuesday, late profit taking sees futures 2-3 points off session highs. Projected rate cuts through year end have regained some ground after receding Monday into early Tuesday (*): Sep'24 cumulative -33.5bp (-32.7bp), Nov'24 cumulative -73.3bp (-71.8bp), Dec'24 -115.4bp (-112.0bp).
- Dec'24 10Y futures currently trade +12 at 115-13.5 vs. 115-16 high, shy of 115-19 technical resistance (High Aug 5 and the bull trigger). 10Y yield -.0563 at 3.6442%. Curves mildly steeper after disinverting last Friday (climbing to highest level since June 2022 early Monday at 7.405), 2s10s currently +.805 at +3.765.
- No economic data on today, markets await Wednesday's CPI, PPI inflation measure on Thursday. Core non-housing service inflation is expected to see at least a repeat of the 0.21% M/M from July, with six analysts between 0.20-0.35% M/M.
- The Federal Reserve's top banking regulator Michael Barr on Tuesday said the biggest U.S. banks would face a 9% increase in capital requirements in a re-proposal of Basel endgame and G-SIB surcharge rules.
- For other large banks that are not G-SIBs, Barr said the impact from the re-proposal would mainly result from the inclusion of unrealized gain and losses on their securities in regulatory capital, estimated to be equivalent to a 3% to 4% increase in capital requirements over the long run, according to prepared remarks.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.