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Tsy Well Bid Into Final Trade of 2020

US TSYS SUMMARY

Futures trading steady to mildly higher ahead the NY open, volumes light on the shortened final session of 2020 (TYH just over 750k on late duration extension trade).

  • Where'd the Yield Go? 30YY currently at 1.6389% compares to 2.3896% 2019 EOY; 10YY at 0.9098% vs. 1.9175% 2019 EOY.
  • Market moves more a function year-end asset allocation than a reaction to headline risk or data: Little react to lower than expected weekly claims (787k vs. 833k exp); same for limited Covid and stimulus relief related headlines as debate of latter stalled in Senate Wednesday.
  • Markets eager to put 2020 behind them will contend with a hectic start to 2021 with Electoral vote count on Jan 6, FOMC minutes Wed as well, and December employment data next week Friday (+245k prior, +50k est).
  • The 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 0.1211%, 5-Yr is down 0.6bps at 0.3608%, 10-Yr is down 0.7bps at 0.9165%, and 30-Yr is down 0.7bps at 1.6482%.
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