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Tsy Yields Dip Ahead Tuesday CPI

US TSYS

Tsy yields receded Monday, futures near the top end of the range on very light volumes, TYZ just cracking 700k by the bell with no economic data to trade off of, participants set sights on Tuesday's CPI:

  • Wrightson ICAP penciling in at 0.4% / 0.3% M/M outturn in Aug CPI data for headline and core, respectively (exactly in line with Bloomberg survey).
  • Deutsche expects an unrounded Aug CPI print of +0.40%, with core +0.22% - the latter slightly soft vs consensus.
  • TD sees a below-consensus reading of +0.2% M/M for core August CPI (but are in-line on headline with +0.4%).
It wasn't particularly noticeable, but geopolitical-risk headlines such as:
  • White House says it remains prepared to engage with North Korea, National Post
  • HU SAYS CHINA COULD FLY JETS OVER TAIWAN ON MISSION NAME CHANGE, Bbg
.. likely lent to support in rate (while equities pared pared gains, SPU's still mildly higher in late trade. Decent two-way deal-tied flow as corporate issuance neared $24B Mon and option-tied hedging on better low delta put flow. The 2-Yr yield is up 0bps at 0.2129%, 5-Yr is down 1.3bps at 0.8031%, 10-Yr is down 2bps at 1.3208%, and 30-Yr is down 3.1bps at 1.9024%.
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