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US TSYS: Tsy Yields Rising to May'25 Highs, Year End Focus

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish mostly lower Friday -- back near late overnight lows after briefly recovering this morning. Light holiday volumes persisted with the Mar'25 10Y contract just over 745k into the close on a 10-tic range.
  • TYH5 trades 108-13 (-8) at the moment, Tsy 10Y yield climbed to 4.6213% (+.0386bp) - highest since late May'24.
  • Tsy curves forged steeper as the short end outperformed: 2s10s +4.274 at 29.303, 5s30s +1.979 at 35.496. Short end bid helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain slightly vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.7bp, Mar'25 -13.3bp (-13.1bp), May'25 -18.5bp (-17.7bp), Jun'25 -26.5bp (-25.7bp).
  • Treasury futures slowly pared losses after this morning's Wholesale Inventories came out lower than expected w/ modest down-revision to prior, Retail Inventories in-line with expectations while Advanced Goods Trade Balance came out a little wider than October's, with the $102.9B shortfall above $98.3B prior ( and $101.2B expected).
  • Markets closed next Wednesday for New Years day, otherwise full sessions for the balance of the week. Data includes MNI PMI and Pending Home Sales Monday, FHFA housing data on Tuesday, weekly claims and construction spending Thursday followed by ISMs on Friday.
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  • Treasuries look to finish mostly lower Friday -- back near late overnight lows after briefly recovering this morning. Light holiday volumes persisted with the Mar'25 10Y contract just over 745k into the close on a 10-tic range.
  • TYH5 trades 108-13 (-8) at the moment, Tsy 10Y yield climbed to 4.6213% (+.0386bp) - highest since late May'24.
  • Tsy curves forged steeper as the short end outperformed: 2s10s +4.274 at 29.303, 5s30s +1.979 at 35.496. Short end bid helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain slightly vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.7bp, Mar'25 -13.3bp (-13.1bp), May'25 -18.5bp (-17.7bp), Jun'25 -26.5bp (-25.7bp).
  • Treasury futures slowly pared losses after this morning's Wholesale Inventories came out lower than expected w/ modest down-revision to prior, Retail Inventories in-line with expectations while Advanced Goods Trade Balance came out a little wider than October's, with the $102.9B shortfall above $98.3B prior ( and $101.2B expected).
  • Markets closed next Wednesday for New Years day, otherwise full sessions for the balance of the week. Data includes MNI PMI and Pending Home Sales Monday, FHFA housing data on Tuesday, weekly claims and construction spending Thursday followed by ISMs on Friday.