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Tsys A Little Stronger, But Taper Talk Eyed

US TSYS SUMMARY

Treasuries are mostly higher to start the week, but off session's best levels.

  • Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) up 7/32 at 134-5.5 (L: 134-02 / H: 134-12). Elevated volumes (~420k).
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.6bps at 0.2012%, 5-Yr is down 1bps at 0.7635%, 10-Yr is down 0.5bps at 1.2717%, and 30-Yr is up 0.1bps at 1.9298%.
  • Risk appetite globally has been weighed down by the chaotic situation in Afghanistan and weaker-than-expected Chinese economic activity data overnight. Tsys outperforming Bunds and Gilts.
  • No scheduled Fed speakers today, with focus this week on the release of the July FOMC minutes.
  • WSJ published an article this morning saying "some" FOMC members want asset purchases to end by mid-2022, but nothing particularly new (had heard this before from Bullard et al who are cited in the piece). Tsy futures ticked a bit lower though TYs now higher than when article was released (0530ET).
  • This came after Minn Fed Pres Kashkari told BBG overnight he'd want to see a "few more" strong jobs reports before tapering.
  • In supply, $99B 13-/26-week bill auctions at 1130ET. NY Fed buying ~$1.425B of 10-22.5Y Tsys.
  • Fairly limited on the data front: Empire Manufacturing at 0830ET, and TIC flows at 1600ET.

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