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Tsys Back at Dec FOMC Lvls, Minimal Changes to Latest Core CPI Trends

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are looking modestly weaker after the bell, near session lows after futures quickly reversed post-CPI revision support this morning. Curves are flatter with Bonds outperforming, Mar'24 10Y futures -4 at 110-20 vs. 110-16 low - a level not seen since prior to the December 13 FOMC.
  • After a brief delay delay, Treasury futures gapped higher (TYH4 tapped 111-01 briefly) after BLS released recalculated seasonally adjusted indexes and adjustment factors for Jan'19-Dec'23. Levels just as quickly reversed as markets digested the 5 years of revisions: very minimal changes to latest trends in core CPI % M/M SA readings.
  • Dec’23 0.28% vs 0.31% prior, offset by small upward revisions in Oct and Nov. Largest uplifts back in July and April, largest downward revisions in May and March – all old history now. The Core CPI 3-month annualized rate near enough unrevised: 3.34% vs 3.33% prior. 6-month rate at 3.25% annualized vs 3.21% prior.
  • Atlanta Fed's Bostic (’24 voter) local radio interview: still seeing a ways to go on inflation. The remarks are broadly in line with his last main appearance from Jan 19 when he said he wants to make sure we’re well on the way to 2% inflation before cutting.
  • Look ahead: Monday data calendar includes NY Fed Inflation Expectations, and more Fed commentary from Fed Gov Bowman, Richmond Fed Barkin MN Fed Kashkar and MN Fed Kashkari.
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