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US TSYS: Tsys Curve Bear-Steepen, 10yr Yield Back Above 4.50%

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Tsys futures have continued to slowly sell-off throughout the session, we trade just off lows atm. Yields and the USD are pushing higher following the Fed's Waller saying recent economic data support keeping interest rates on hold, fed funds futures are still pricing in a single cut this year in September.
  • TU is -00⅞ at 102-23+, while TY is -08 at 109-02+, a continuation lower would open 108-00, the Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 110-00, Feb 7 high.
  • Cash tsys curves have bear-steepened today, yields are 1-4.5bps cheaper. The 2yr is +1.1bps at 4.270%, while the 10yr is back above 4.50%, last +3.7bps at 4.513%. The 2s10s is +2.5bps at 23.954, while the 2s30s is +3bps at 46.413.
  • It is a rather quiet week for US data, fed fund futures are little changed so far this week, with the first cut pricing fully priced for the September meeting, with a cumulative 40bps of cuts priced by year end.
  • Locally in Asia today, Australia's RBA cut rates by 25bps as expected, however the statement from Bullock has been somewhat hawkish, ACGBs yields are 4.5 to 5bps cheaper today.
  • Later today we have Empire Manufacturing and the NAHB Housing Market Index
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  • Tsys futures have continued to slowly sell-off throughout the session, we trade just off lows atm. Yields and the USD are pushing higher following the Fed's Waller saying recent economic data support keeping interest rates on hold, fed funds futures are still pricing in a single cut this year in September.
  • TU is -00⅞ at 102-23+, while TY is -08 at 109-02+, a continuation lower would open 108-00, the Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 110-00, Feb 7 high.
  • Cash tsys curves have bear-steepened today, yields are 1-4.5bps cheaper. The 2yr is +1.1bps at 4.270%, while the 10yr is back above 4.50%, last +3.7bps at 4.513%. The 2s10s is +2.5bps at 23.954, while the 2s30s is +3bps at 46.413.
  • It is a rather quiet week for US data, fed fund futures are little changed so far this week, with the first cut pricing fully priced for the September meeting, with a cumulative 40bps of cuts priced by year end.
  • Locally in Asia today, Australia's RBA cut rates by 25bps as expected, however the statement from Bullock has been somewhat hawkish, ACGBs yields are 4.5 to 5bps cheaper today.
  • Later today we have Empire Manufacturing and the NAHB Housing Market Index