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US TSYS: Tsys Curves Bear-Steepen, Trumps Confirms Tariffs

US TSYS
  • Treasuries bear steepened on the day with long-end of the curve ending cheaper by around 2bp, however we did see some support in the long-end right into the close. Curves rebounding off two-week lows (partially tied to late 5Y/30Y Ultra steepener Block). Earlier Tsys futures nearly breached the highest levels since mid-December but quickly retreated following last night's data.
  • TU closed -0-00⅞ at  103-10¼, while TY closed -0-08 at 110-20+
  • Pres Trump confirmed a March 4 timeline for tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, with the latter including an additional 10% tariff on top of the already in place 10%.
  • Cash tsys yields closed off session's worst, as the long-end saw some support heading into the close with the 10yr closing the session +0.4bps at 4.260%, after earlier trading +2.5bps. Curves steepened with the 2s10s +2.2bps at 20.473.
  • Initial claims were higher than expected at 242k (sa, cons 221k) in the week to Feb 22, after an upward revised 220k (initial 219k); Core PCE inflation was revised up in the second Q4 release, although at 2.65% annualized from an initial 2.50%, it was exaggerated on screens by rounding to 2.7%; Pending home sales in January fell much more sharply than expected (-4.6% vs -0.9% expected, -4.1% prior rev from -5.5%).
  • Fed-dated OIS was broadly unchanged on the day, around 57bp of rate cuts remains priced by the December FOMC with approximately 7bps of easing priced into the May policy meeting
  • Later today we have Personal Spending/Income, PCE, Wholesale Inventories & MNI Chicago PMI
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  • Treasuries bear steepened on the day with long-end of the curve ending cheaper by around 2bp, however we did see some support in the long-end right into the close. Curves rebounding off two-week lows (partially tied to late 5Y/30Y Ultra steepener Block). Earlier Tsys futures nearly breached the highest levels since mid-December but quickly retreated following last night's data.
  • TU closed -0-00⅞ at  103-10¼, while TY closed -0-08 at 110-20+
  • Pres Trump confirmed a March 4 timeline for tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, with the latter including an additional 10% tariff on top of the already in place 10%.
  • Cash tsys yields closed off session's worst, as the long-end saw some support heading into the close with the 10yr closing the session +0.4bps at 4.260%, after earlier trading +2.5bps. Curves steepened with the 2s10s +2.2bps at 20.473.
  • Initial claims were higher than expected at 242k (sa, cons 221k) in the week to Feb 22, after an upward revised 220k (initial 219k); Core PCE inflation was revised up in the second Q4 release, although at 2.65% annualized from an initial 2.50%, it was exaggerated on screens by rounding to 2.7%; Pending home sales in January fell much more sharply than expected (-4.6% vs -0.9% expected, -4.1% prior rev from -5.5%).
  • Fed-dated OIS was broadly unchanged on the day, around 57bp of rate cuts remains priced by the December FOMC with approximately 7bps of easing priced into the May policy meeting
  • Later today we have Personal Spending/Income, PCE, Wholesale Inventories & MNI Chicago PMI