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Tsys Futures Edge Lower, Curve Steepens, Jobless Claims & 30Y Supply Later

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are weaker today, following moves overnight. The 10Y contract is down (- 03+) at 108-23, however still well above initial support at 108-15+ (20-day EMA), the front-end is holding up better with the 2Y contract is holding slightly better down (- 00+) at 101-21+.
  • Treasuries maintain a firmer tone and are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. Initial resistance is 109-06+/08+ (Channel top from Feb 1 high / 50-day EMA), while to the downside, initial support is at 108-15+ (20-day EMA).
  • The cash treasury curve has continued it's bear-steepening moves, with yields 1-2bps higher, the 2Y is +1bp at 4.847%, while the 10Y is +1.6bps at 4.510%
  • Focus in the APAC region today was on Japan where Labor Cash Earnings YoY missed estimates coming in at 0.6% vs 1.4% and down from 1.8% in Feb and the BoJ summaries of opinion with some notable headlines include one member stating that the rate path could be higher than expected while another stated discussions on rate hike timing should also deepen (BBG)
  • FED INTERVIEW (MNI): Fed Will Cut Rates More Sparingly In '24-Weber (See link)
  • Looking Ahead: Weekly jobless claims data, 30Y supply (after April saw the first tail since November) and then SF Fed’s Daly speaks.
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