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Tsys Futures Little Changed, Curve Slightly Steeper

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have been largely rangebound today, volumes have been slightly below average. There has been little in the way of headlines today, investors as un the sideway as they await FOMC minutes, jobless claims, PMI & Jackson Hole later in the week.
  • The Fed's Bostic will speak on payments later today, while Barr will speak on cybersecurity
  • The front-end is out-performing a touch with TUU4 + 00⅛ at 103-04¼, while TYU4 is - 02 at 113-05.
  • A bullish theme in tsys remains intact and price continues to trade above support. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this highlights bullish sentiment. The recent breach of 111-01, the Jun 14 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend.
  • Cash treasury curve has steepened today, yields have traded in a tight range are are +/- 1bp, with the 2yr yield -0.9bp to 4.057%, while the 10yr yield is +0.6bps at 3.794%.
  • Fed Fund futures are fully pricing in at least one cut at the September meeting, with futures currently pricing in 32bps of cuts. The FX market could be leaning more towards a 50bps cut with the BBDXY now trading at 1,231.53 after falling 1.32% over the past week to the lowest level since mid March.
  • Data and Fed speak remains limited Tuesday, with focus on July FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The KC Fed hosted Jackson Hole economic symposium "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy," will be held Aug. 22-24, Fed Chairman Powell speaking 1000ET Friday Morning.
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