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Tsys Futures Open Lower On Trump News, No Cash Trading

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures edged higher post Friday's PPI data, and finished near sessions best levels. Tsys initially opening lower with markets reacting to the attempted assassinations of Trump, the moves int he front-end of the curve have now largely been erased, although TYU4 is still trading off -0-08+ at 110-29+. As a reminder, Japan is out today, so there will be no cash tsys trading,
  • The cash treasury curve bull-steepened with yields 2-6.5bps lower. The 2y yield was -6.2bps at 4.451%, the 7yr was -3.1bps at 4.125% while the 10yr yields was -2.7bps at 4.183%
  • Data: PPI Final Demand MoM (0.2% vs. 0.1% est, with prior PPI up-revised to 0.0% from -0.2%), YoY (2.6% vs. 2.3% est, 2.2% prior) and U. of Mich. Sentiment 66 vs 68.5, (current Conditions 64.1 vs. 66.0 - the lowest since late 2022) while inflation expectations come out in-line to slightly lower than expected with both 1Y and 5-10Y at 2.9%.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end look firmer vs. early Friday (*): July'24 at -6.5% w/ cumulative at -1.6bp at 5.313%, Sep'24 cumulative -25.2bp (-24.1bp), Nov'24 cumulative -41.4bp (-38.5bp), Dec'24 -62.9bp (-59.6bp).
  • Today, Fed Chair Powell makes his final scheduled appearance ahead of the pre-July FOMC meeting communications blackout period & Empire Manufacturing
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