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Tsys Futures Post Modest Gains After Surging On Middle East Tensions

US TSYS

Treasury futures traded sideways in modestly positive territory for most of the US session on Friday, after safe haven assets surged as Israel launched targeted attack against Iran. While the Federal Reserve entered their self-imposed media Blackout regarding policy.

  • Jun'24 10Y futures surged to a high of 108-22+ during the Asian session on Friday, before tensions simmered in the middle east as futures pared all gains to finished the session up just +06 + at 107-29.
  • A bear cycle in Treasuries remains in play and short-term gains are considered corrective. Initial resistance is 108-25+ (Apr 12 high), while to the downside, initial resistance is at 107-13+ (Apr 16 low).
  • Cash Treasury curve was slightly flatter on Friday with yields were flat to 2bps lower. The 2Y yield was unchanged at 4.986%, 10Y -1.2bps to 4.621%, while the 2y10y was -1.372 at -36.937.
  • Projected rate cut pricing held largely steady vs. late Thursday lvls: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -13.5% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.5bp at 5.283%. July'24 cumulative at 12.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -23bp.
  • Looking ahead: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
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