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Tsys futures Steady, Projected Rate Cut Pricing Starting To Recede

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures did very little on Monday, ranges were tight and volumes were low with Japan and London out for Spring holiday. The 10Y contract made highs of 109-01+ and lows of 108-23 finishing the session at 108-27+, we have ticked slightly higher post the close now trading at 108-29.
  • Treasuries have rallied following today’s NFP release. The move higher strengthens a bullish S/T set-up and signals potential for an extension of the correction Initial resistance is 109-09/09+ (50-day EMA/ May 3 high), while to the downside, initial support is at 108-12 (20-day EMA).
  • Cash Treasury curve bull-flattened again on Monday, yields were 1.5bps higher to 3bps lower, with the 2Y yield unchanged at 4.831%, 10Y -2bps to 4.487%, while the 2y10y -3.477 at -34.730
  • Projected rate cut pricing looks steady to mildly cooler vs. this morning's levels: June 2024 steady at -10% w/ cumulative rate cut -2.5bp at 5.298%, July'24 at -24% w/ cumulative at -8.5bp at 5.238%, Sep'24 cumulative -20.7bp (-22.8bp earlier), Nov'24 cumulative -30.3bp (-32.8bp earlier). Dec'24 cumulative currently -43.7bp (-47.7bp earlier).
  • Looking Ahead: Little on the data calendar for the week, focus will turn to Fed speakers with MN Fed Kashkari at 1130ET.
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