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US TSYS: Tsys Hold Higher Range Heading Into Year End

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish near the top end of the range Monday after marking session highs following much weaker than expected Chicago PMI data. Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI slipped 3.3 points to 36.9 in December. This is the third consecutive monthly decline, with the index at its lowest since May 2024, and below the 2024 average.
  • Higher than expected pending new home sales (2.2% vs. 0.8% est) and a jump in Dallas Fed mfg index data (3.4 vs. -3.0 est) tempered Tsy support by midmorning with the Mar'25 10Y contract trading around 108-30 (+16) through the second half, 10Y yield -.0806 at 4.5447% after the bell.
  • Despite the pull-back, Projected rate cuts into early 2025 gained momentum vs. this morning, levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -30.3bp (-28.8bp).
  • Tuesday data (prior, est) includes FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.7%, 0.4%) and S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.18%, 0.20%) at 0900ET, Dallas Fed Services Activity (9.8, --) at 1030ET.
  • Reminder for Tuesday's session: Rate futures have full session (1600ET close) while cash Tsys close at 1400ET. Still no decision from the CME Group regarding the "day of mourning" in honor of Pres Carter on January 9, while stocks and Federal Gov is closed.
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  • Treasuries look to finish near the top end of the range Monday after marking session highs following much weaker than expected Chicago PMI data. Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI slipped 3.3 points to 36.9 in December. This is the third consecutive monthly decline, with the index at its lowest since May 2024, and below the 2024 average.
  • Higher than expected pending new home sales (2.2% vs. 0.8% est) and a jump in Dallas Fed mfg index data (3.4 vs. -3.0 est) tempered Tsy support by midmorning with the Mar'25 10Y contract trading around 108-30 (+16) through the second half, 10Y yield -.0806 at 4.5447% after the bell.
  • Despite the pull-back, Projected rate cuts into early 2025 gained momentum vs. this morning, levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -30.3bp (-28.8bp).
  • Tuesday data (prior, est) includes FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.7%, 0.4%) and S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.18%, 0.20%) at 0900ET, Dallas Fed Services Activity (9.8, --) at 1030ET.
  • Reminder for Tuesday's session: Rate futures have full session (1600ET close) while cash Tsys close at 1400ET. Still no decision from the CME Group regarding the "day of mourning" in honor of Pres Carter on January 9, while stocks and Federal Gov is closed.