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Tsys Little Changed Ahead Of FOMC Minutes

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures little changed today ahead of FOMC meeting minutes later today. During the first part of the session futures continued the upward move with TYU4 hitting a high of 113-24 before trading off to where we trade now at 113-20, while TUU4 +0-00¼ at 103-08⅛.
  • A bullish theme remains intact and support remains in place as TYU4 trades above all key moving averages. The 10yr recent breach of 111-01, the Jun 14 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend with the 20-day EMA at 112-26 acting as initial support, while resistance is at 114-03 the August 6 highs.
  • Cash treasury curves is little changed today yields are +/- 0.5bp. The 2yr is +0.4bps at 3.987%, while the 10yr is +0.2bps at 3.809% vs yearly lows of 3.789%.
  • The 2s10s has almost erased all the steepening that occurred at the start of the month and now trades at -18.291
  • Projected rate cuts through year end gaining vs. early Tuesday levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -32.5bp (-31.1bp), Nov'24 cumulative -63.4bp (-61.3bp), Dec'24 -97.4bp (-94.2bp).
  • Main with focus on Wednesday afternoon's July FOMC minutes. The KC Fed hosted Jackson Hole economic symposium "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy," will be held Aug. 22-24, Fed Chairman Powell speaking 1000ET Friday Morning.
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