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US TSYS SUMMARY: *** Tsys trading mixed into the second half after a weaker
open, curve flatter with long end near session highs; 10Y yld holding below 2.4%
at 2.372%. Quiet at start of 2-day FOMC policy meeting, relatively low volume
day (TYZ<860k), low open volume w/Germany out on holiday.
- Month end support contributing to mild bid that emerged after the opening
bell, limited react to 3Q ECI +0.7% as expected, US Redbook Oct store sales
-1.3%, US Aug Case Shiller home price index +0.5% m/m and strong Oct Chicago PMI
number of 66.2 up from 65.2 in Sep. Carry-over support after bid developed in
- Modest two-way across the curve w/relative value and month end buying vs.
FX-tied sales as US$ climbed vs. Yen. Modest deal-tied flow in the mix. Two-way
position squaring ahead Fri's NFP (315k est vs. -33k in Sep)
- Powell leads replacement Fed chair poll at 90% ahead expected annc by US Pres
Trump Thu. Taylor pick likely to roil mkt/bear flattening rates.
- Swap spds holding mildly tighter amid receiver flow in 5s and 7s on modest
size, payers in 2s helping flatten the spd curve slightly.