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TTF Back Positive on the Day Boosted by Supply Risks

NATURAL GAS

TTF edges back up to positive on the day with supply risks adding to near term support while tight supply concerns continue to support winter 23 and beyond.

  • Norwegian supplies are expected to drop again later this month with another period of seasonal maintenance according to Gassco while price spreads continue to encourage LNG flows to Aisa over Europe. See chart below of Gassco aggregate field and processing plants outages.
  • The profitability of US LNG exports to Asia for September was estimated at 7.15$/mmbtu and to Europe at 6.24$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg before the TTF open today.
  • The Q1 2024 – Sep 23 spread is currently trading around 19.2€/MWh with the Win24- Win23 steady at 6.75€/MWh.
    • TTF SEP 23 up 0.9% at 30.76€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 0.5% at 46.08€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.5% at 48.75€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0.4% at 52.65€/MWh


Source: Gassco

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