TTF Calmer Today Awaiting Further News on Australia Strikes

TTF is holding fairly steady today after price swings this week have pushed the front month historic 30 day volatility back up over 120%.

• Aggregate daily ICE TTF traded volumes surged with the price moves on Wednesday up to 541k contracts compared to an average of about 220k over the previous month. Yesterday aggregate TTF volumes were back at 297k.
• Europe is unlikely to face a severe shortage of LNG if strikes at Australian production facilities are confirmed next week according to Montel sources.
• A “critical shortage” is unlikely according to Jake Horslen at Energy Aspects but the industrial action could tighten supply ahead of winter.
• “But it would still tighten the balance versus previous expectations and pose new risks for the winter,” he said, adding it would potentially reduce Europe’s anticipated “winter buffer”.
• Timing will be a key according to Kpler with any disruption soon impacting European storage injection rates. The impact of strikes in late September or early October could be less pronounced when European storage is expected to be full unless they were extended into the start of the heating season.
  • TTF SEP 23 down -0.5% at 36.87€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 23 up 1% at 49.69€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 up 1.3% at 50.85€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 1.2% at 54.25€/MWh