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TTF Curve Drifts Lower but Unchanged Over the Last Week

NATURAL GAS

TTF curve continues to drift lower today as warm weather and EU efforts to reduce demand reduces the risk of fuel shortages this winter. TTF Dec22 has lost all gains made late last week and is trading the lowest since June although cold weather could still provide upside risk over this heating season. The UK Met Office today updated their 3-month forecast suggesting the likelihood of a colder three month period (Nov-Jan) overall is slightly greater than normal.

  • The TTF curve is relatively unchanged with ongoing concern for supplies beyond the current winter. Beyond this winter concerns remain that LNG infrastructure will struggle to increase EU regas and global liquefaction capacity in time to restock EU storage next summer and cover demand next winter.
    • TTF DEC 22 down -9.1% at 126.69€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 23 down -6.9% at 131€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -6.1% at 129.75€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -4.1% at 95.25€/MWh

Source: Bloomberg

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