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TTF Curve Higher on Nord Stream Disruption

NATURAL GAS

Front month TTF continue to push higher due to the supply disruption through Nord Stream. TTF AUG 22 up 11% at 196.04€/MWh

  • The impact of lower Russian supply can be seen across the forward curve with Win22 up 11% and Sum23 up 7.8% today. Any shortfall in storage ahead of this winter could result in depleted stocks next spring and therefore increase pressure to restock again next summer.
  • The forward curve shows prices more stable from Summer 25 when more global LNG liquefaction comes online and with an increase in EU regasification capacity. Increase in global liquefaction capacity is expected to be driven by US where approval has been given for approximately 187mtpa extra and by Qatar where 50mtpa extra is expected by 2027.
  • European regasification capacity is estimated to rise by 40% and to over 360bcm/yr by 2026.
  • The graph below shows the changing forward curve over the last 3 months:
Source: Bloomberg

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