TTF Eases Back After Surge Higher Yesterday

TTF front month has opened slightly down from the previous close after surging higher yesterday up to the highest since early April with near term supply risks combining with easing temperatures into October. Supply risks from ongoing Norway maintenance outages, US export terminal maintenance and some lingering concerns from Australia LNG supply all supported the move.

• TTF OCT 23 down -2.4% at 43.36€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -2.5% at 48.7€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.8% at 49.45€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated down slightly to 222.6mcm/d but further capacity is expected to return later this week. Outages are expected to total 63mcm/d by the end of this week and then fall to 34mcm/d by 8 October.
• European natural gas storage is up to 94.96% full on 24 Sep according to GIE data with injection rates recovering this week and compared to the five year average of 86.3%.

• The latest two week weather forecast is relatively unchanged from yesterday and shows above normal temperatures over the next week before cooling back towards normal during the first week of October.
• LNG sendout to Europe was at 250mcm/d on 24 Sep with flows well below last year levels of around 370mcm/d.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are steady at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are still strong at 79.5mcm/d today.