TTF Eases Lower Amid Warm Weather until Month End

The TTF market is slightly lower today and holding around 50€/MWh with focus on the warm weather and supply uncertainty driven by any possible escalation in the Israel conflict. The prospect of an Israeli ground offensive seems to be in doubt to help ease some upside pressure of further disruption to gas supplies from the region.

• TTF NOV 23 down -3.1% at 49.7€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -2.6% at 56.2€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -2.3% at 54.22€/MWh
• The latest weather forecasts show above normal temperatures for NW and central Europe until the end of the month although could drift back towards normal in the first week of November.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up to 311.5mcm/d but with supplies from Oseberg still curbed today due to process problems with an uncertain duration.
• End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 98.59% full on 22 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 89.9%.
• Total European LNG sendout is holding steady around 306mcm/d on 22 Oct compared to an average of 310mcm/d so far this month and 369mcm/d in Oct 2022.

• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.3mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara at 61.2mcm/d today.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes yesterday dipped back below average at 204k.