TTF Edges Higher Ahead of Expected Drop in Temperatures

TTF front month has recovered from a low of 43.15€/MWh yesterday supported by the risk of higher demand due to colder weather into next week. The upside risk is offsetting the easing supply risks from the Middle East and Egypt LNG while near term supplies remain healthy.

• TTF DEC 23 up 2.1% at 45.55€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 1.7% at 46.49€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.4% at 45.5€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 0.8% at 49.07€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to fall below normal into the coming weekend and then expected to remain below throughout the remaining two week period.

• European LNG sendout was relatively unchanged on the day at 413mcm/d on Nov 21 compared to flows of approximately 450mcm/d seen this time last year.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are higher again up to 358mcm/d today compared to an average of 334mcm/d so far in November.
• Small withdrawals have taken European natural gas storage down to 98.69% full on Nov 21 according to GIE data and still well above the seasonal five year average of 87.74%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are up slightly today at 51.6mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday slightly above average at 275k.