TTF Extends Decline on Warm Weather and Strong LNG Supply

TTF extends the recent decline with front month trading below 100€/MWh to the lowest since late October.

• TTF JAN 23 down -7.3% at 98€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -7.4% at 100€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -7% at 100.86€/MWh
• The forecast of warmer weather for Europe and LNG import flows maintaining near record levels have helped bring front month down 37% from a peak at 160€/MWh on 8 Dec. The weather forecast shows above normal temperatures extending further towards the end of the month and potentially into January.
• Total European LNG imports flows are holding just below 500mcm/d with yesterday showing another 20 vessels were expected into NW Europe before the end of the month despite closing spreads to Asia.
• The warmer weather has eased the pressure on storage with European stocks still well above the five year average levels at 83.45% compared to 73.5%.
• Norwegian supply is nominated back up to 337.8mcm/d today after a reduction from Aasta Hansteen yesterday resulted in a 15mcm/d drop.
• Russian gas supply through Ukraine is stable at 42.4mcm/d despite an explosion at a pipeline in Russia yesterday. Gazprom said flows are able to continue using an alternative route.