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TTF Extends Gains from Last Week on Supply Risks

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TTF front month has traded through the high of last week with support from geopolitical risks and with Norway supply outages this week. LNG supply risks in Asia add to risk of global competition for the fuel as Malaysia’s Bintulu plant slowly ramps up after outage earlier this month and with Australia’s Gorgon still offline.

    • TTF JUN 24 up 1.7% at 31.31€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 up 1.8% at 32.11€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.2% at 37.01€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.9% at 35.32€/MWh
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 317.3mcm/d. Gassco data shows outages of 41mcm/d today will rise to 177mcm/d tomorrow amid works at Troll and Kollsnes before declining back to around 55mcm/d later this week.
  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe are still forecasts to hold above normal throughout the two week outlook.
  • European LNG sendout was around 288mcm/d on May 17 and approximately in line with the average seen so far in May of 292mcm/d.
  • Total European gas storage was up to 66.77% full on May 18 according to GIE compared to the five year seasonal average of 52.8% but with injection rates back below normal in recent days.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.2mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 55.3mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 240k on May 17.
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TTF front month has traded through the high of last week with support from geopolitical risks and with Norway supply outages this week. LNG supply risks in Asia add to risk of global competition for the fuel as Malaysia’s Bintulu plant slowly ramps up after outage earlier this month and with Australia’s Gorgon still offline.

    • TTF JUN 24 up 1.7% at 31.31€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 up 1.8% at 32.11€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.2% at 37.01€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.9% at 35.32€/MWh
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 317.3mcm/d. Gassco data shows outages of 41mcm/d today will rise to 177mcm/d tomorrow amid works at Troll and Kollsnes before declining back to around 55mcm/d later this week.
  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe are still forecasts to hold above normal throughout the two week outlook.
  • European LNG sendout was around 288mcm/d on May 17 and approximately in line with the average seen so far in May of 292mcm/d.
  • Total European gas storage was up to 66.77% full on May 18 according to GIE compared to the five year seasonal average of 52.8% but with injection rates back below normal in recent days.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.2mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 55.3mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 240k on May 17.