TTF Extends Rally Amid Supply Risks

European TTF gas extends the rally up from a front month low of 25.5€/MWh at the end of Jul amid ongoing supply risks from Norway, Russia and LNG to offset the high gas storage levels.

• TTF SEP 23 up 3.6% at 32.18€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 1.2% at 46.46€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.1% at 49.13€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up at 336.9mcm/d today as output recovers towards the volumes seen in late July. Output is expected to drop next week with further maintenance works planned at fields such as Troll and Ormen Lange according to Gassco.
• Total European gas in store is above the five year range up to 87.72% full on a 7 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 73.3%.
• LNG sendout to Europe recovered back up to 300mcm/d on 7 August with increased flows to NW Europe and Italy. The JKM-TTF spreads is edging lower but near term US LNG exports remain more profitable to deliver to Asia over Europe.
• Temperature forecasts in Europe have cooled slightly but are still expected to hold above normal next week after the below normal seen in NW and Central Europe this week. German wind generation is forecast to drop from the recent strong output.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are steady today at 42.3mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 65.5mcm/d.