TTF Falls Further on Recovering LNG and Norway Supplies

TTF front month continues to pull back to the lowest since 8 June driven by recovering LNG sendout and the gradual return of Norwegian supply from maintenance.

• TTF AUG 23 down -1.7% at 28.57€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -0.8% at 46.63€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.1% at 47.65€/MWh
• LNG sendout to Europe has recovered this week up from a low of around 300mcm/d at the start of the month to 372mcm/d on 10 July.
• Pipeline imports from Norway have recovered to 267mcm/d today as seasonal maintenance outages start to ease. Current schedules show further field and processing plant outages to end later this week. Imports fell below 220mcm/d at times in June but are still well below flows up to 340mcm/d seen during Q1.
• The latest weather forecast for NW and central Europe suggests temperatures will hold above normal over the coming week but could dip back towards normal in the second week of the outlook. An updated seasonal forecast by Copernicus Climate Change Service signals a minimum 70% likelihood of well above normal temperatures in western Europe and parts of the US.
• Total European gas in store is up to 80.1% full on 10 July according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 65.0% and on track to refill despite below normal injection rates.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today up to 42.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 63.5mcm/d.