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TTF Falls On High Stocks and Low Demand Amid Middle East Risks


European TTF prices are falling again today after seeing a pull back yesterday with no signs yet that the Israel ground offensive has caused an escalation of the conflict to the wider Middle East region. The upside risk from potential supply disruptions due to the conflict are weighed against bearish short-term fundamentals from high inventories and lwo demand from mild weather.

    • TTF DEC 23 down -4.3% at 50.77€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -4.1% at 52.65€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -3.6% at 50.71€/MWh
  • The latest weather forecast is relatively unchanged with above normal temperatures for NW and central Europe in the coming week but drifting back towards normal or just below in the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up to 322.6mcm/d after seeing a gradual recovery since dipping below 300mcm/d on 22 Oct.
  • End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 99.25% full on 29 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.1%.
  • Total European LNG sendout was at 341mcm/d on 29 Oct with an average for October of about 323mcm/d.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara at 68.7mcm/d today.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes were yesterday up to 308k.

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