TTF Falls With Warmer Weather Expected Later This Week

TTF has pulled back from gains late last week with the forecast of warmer weather later this week expected to limit demand while pipeline and LNG supplies remain healthy. Front month has seen a net decline from over 55€/MWh in mid October amid low demand and healthy supplies and easing Middle East supply risks despite rising storage withdrawals.

• TTF JAN 24 down -4% at 41.78€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -3.5% at 42.18€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -3.6% at 41.24€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 down -2.8% at 45.35€/MWh
• The latest NW and central Europe weather forecast shows temperatures gradually rising back above normal during this week where they are expected to remain throughout the remainder of the two week outlook.
• European LNG sendout has eased back to 406mcm/d on Dec 2 after reaching the highest since May 5 at 478mcm/d last week and compared to over 500mcm/d this time last year.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway remain strong up near the highest of the year at 354.4mcm/d.
• Withdrawal rates from European natural gas storage are still above normal but eased back from highs last week with total levels of gas in store down to 94.39% full on Dec 2 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 84.0%.

• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.1mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 58.3mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were 223k on Friday.