TTF Heading for Weekly Gain amid LNG Supply Risks

TTF front month is trading just below the previous close and heading for a net gain on the week with LNG supply risks weighed against returning Norwegian pipeline supplies amid low demand and healthy storage levels while.

• TTF OCT 23 down -1.2% at 38.63€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -0.9% at 46.69€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.7% at 48.5€/MWh
• Outages at US LNG export terminals LNG are adding to supply risks but strikes at Chevron LNG facilities in Australia have ended after unions agreed to resolve the disputes. Sendout to Europe was back up to 297mcm/d on 20 Sep after the drop last weekend but still below the average of 365mcm/d in Sep 2022.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 224.9mcm/d with the restart of the Troll field after maintenance but a number of smaller facilities are still seeing delayed returns. Gassco shows overall Norwegian capacity reductions falling from 127mcm/d today to 41mcm/d by 29 Sep.

• European natural gas storage is up to 94.40% full on 20 Sep amid slow injection rates according to GIE data and compared to the five year average of 85.5%.
• European demand remains low with German natural gas consumption last week 24.7% below the 2018-2021 average. The month ahead forecast for warm weather into the first half of October could limit any early season heating demand. Temperatures across Europe are expected to remain above normal throughout most of the two week forecast.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are steady at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are still strong at 79.1mcm/d today.