TTF Higher on Supply Risks and Cooler Weather

TTF front month is trading up towards the highs from Friday and the highest since 23 August with support from ongoing Norway import curtailments, cooling weather into October and with LNG supply risks amid US export terminal maintenance.

• TTF OCT 23 up 3.3% at 41.1€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 255.9mcm/d as field and processing plants gradually return from maintenance. Capacity reductions are expected to increase up to 125mcm/d on 27 Sep before falling back to just 41mcm/d offline on 2 Oct.

• European natural gas storage is up to 94.74% full on 23 Sep with injection rates recovering slightly in recent days according to GIE data and compared to the five year average of 86.1%.
• The latest month ahead weather forecast shows above normal temperatures over the next week before cooling back towards normal during the first week of October.
• European demand remains low with German natural gas consumption last week 24.7% below the 2018-2021 average. The month ahead forecast for warm weather into the first half of October could limit any early season heating demand. Temperatures across Europe are expected to remain above normal throughout most of the two week forecast.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are steady at 41.8mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are still strong at 77.7mcm/d today.