TTF Holding Near Lows With Strong LNG Imports

Front month TTF is still near the lowest since July 2021 seen yesterday after a slight recovery late in the day. Below normal demand and strong LNG imports are weighing on prices with muted LNG competition from Asia. The current Norway maintenance and low wind generation are both providing some support.

• TTF MAY 23 down 0% at 38.55€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 0.8% at 55.42€/MWh
• Temperatures in northwest Europe are expected to vary either side of normal in the coming week but the Iberian Peninsula is still expecting strongly above normal temperatures.
• Norwegian imports are today at 298.3mcm/d with outages scheduled into the middle of May. Current outages are impacting output from Troll, Gullfaks, Karsto and Kollsnes.
• Net European LNG import flows have been strong throughout April averaging 455mcm/d so far and were up at 519mcm/d on 25 April.
• European gas storage is healthy at 58.29% on 25 Apr according to GIE data with net injection rates still holding slightly below normal at the start of the injection season. Germany is at 65.92% full, Italy at 62.87%, Netherlands at 60.76%, Austria at 67.87% and France at 34.04%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today back up to 41.7mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are up at 81.6mcm/d.